september 2024 political brief: the race of the century

2024-09-19

The 2024 election cycle persists in keeping the nation on its toes. Election advertising is expected to reach record-breaking levels as candidates and their PACs increase spending to influence voters in critical battleground states. Alongside the ever-evolving Presidential Race, the nation will elect representatives for 468 Congressional seats, including 33 of the 100 Senate positions and all 435 House of Representative seats.

Presidential Candidate Funding

As we enter the final stretch toward Election Day, fundraising efforts remain a critical component for candidates. Since joining the Presidential race in July, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has raised over $540 million following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal. Highlighting her commitment to the party, the Harris campaign announced on September 3rd a donation of nearly $25 million to support down-ballot Democratic candidates.

After a surge in donations following the attempted assassination in July, which brought in $138.7 million in July alone, former President Donald Trump’s campaign has since experienced a slowdown in contributions compared to his opponent.

Total Candidate Funding Raised, as reported by the Federal Election Commission in September 2024

The August fundraising results reveal that Harris started September with $404 million in cash on hand, while Trump’s campaign had $296 million remaining at the end of the month after raising $130 million.

  • Joseph R. Biden* (DEM): $500,716,338.87
  • Kamala D. Harris* (DEM): $489,323,032.78
    •  Following his withdrawal, Biden’s FEC filing was updated to replace his name with Harris’ at the top of the ticket, allowing her to use his remaining campaign funds.
  • Donald J. Trump (REP): $268,541,782.57

Total raised by 2024 Presidential Candidates

  • $1,546,477,352

2024 Presidential Election Polls

Former President Trump led the polls throughout July; however, Vice President Harris took the lead in August and has maintained it through the first half of September. As of September 16th, the race remains exceptionally close, with Harris leading at 49% and Trump behind at 47%.

Key Races Beyond the Presidential Race

  • Congressional Races: On the same date, U.S. citizens will also vote for the next 468 Congressional seats (33 Senate, 435 House). Democrats and Independents currently hold a majority in the Senate, while Republicans maintain control in the House of Representatives.
  • State Legislative Races: With key races across 44 states, 5,783 out of 7,386 (78%) of the nation’s legislature seats are up for vote, which has the potential to reshape the political landscape of the United States.

Political Advertising Spending

Compared to the 2020 election, political ad spending in the United States has seen a substantial increase. Projections indicate a record-breaking $12.32 billion expenditure in 2024, representing a 28.7% rise from the 2020 presidential race, according to eMarketer.

This surge has led to a notable shift toward digital media channels, particularly Connected TV (CTV), which has become the dominant platform for campaign advertisements due to its refined targeting capabilities.

CTV Political Ad Spend’s Growth, reported by eMarketer

  • 2020: $0.26 billion

  • 2022: $0.96 billion

  • 2024: $1.56 billion

This significant growth in digital political ad spending since the last Presidential Election– up 156.3% – is expected to reach $3.46 billion in 2024, nearly ten times the revenue of 2016.

Why Causal IQ?

Our proprietary algorithms consistently achieve over 80% success in the campaigns we support, particularly in districts with margin swings of 2-5% among all voters. Our cutting-edge consumer targeting technology excels at engaging with net new voters aged 18-29, who do not typically participate in elections. We reach this demographic through various platforms including Digital out of Home (DOOH), Connected-TV (CTV), audio, banner display, video, and in-game.

Our work has earned us accolades from the Reed’s, including Best Use of Online Targeting for Mayoral Campaign and Best Use of Digital out of Home during the 2023 political season. Additionally, the 2024 Pollie Awards acknowledged our work in several categories: Digital Campaign, Best Use of New Digital Technology, and Independent Expenditure Campaign- Presidential Primary.

Campaigns by Causal IQ

Causal IQ partners with the nation’s leading political agencies and firms to drive success through dynamic digital advertising campaigns. With our end-to-end solutions and expertise, Causal IQ will help you gain a decisive edge this election cycle reaching the 5-10% persuadable voters wherever they are consuming media. For more information, please reach out to campaigns@causaliq.com.

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